As the world struggles to adjust to the harsh new reality of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the most recent instalment of the Sixth IPCC Report slipped out almost unnoticed. And that is worrying, since the assessment in this section of the Report is even starker than previous assessments – noting in particular that in order to avoid global temperatures increasing by greater than 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels, the world needs to halve its emissions this decade: a reduction that the world does not currently appear to be remotely on course to do.
However, whilst the IPCC Report and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are not linked, Russian aggression in Ukraine may serve as a catalyst to speed up the European energy transition and accelerate its retreat from dependency on Russian gas and exposure to volatile international oil markets, which could in turn deliver a more rapid reduction in European emissions. In the process, perhaps setting the world on a path to achieving an outcome that currently seems unattainable.
What is the IPCC Report?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a panel of the world's leading climate scientists. The Panel publishes regular updates of global knowledge on the climate crisis.更新设计帮助政府决策。更新内容非常全面,每次需要5至7年完成The current Report is the Panel's Sixth Report since its establishment in 1988, and commentators have noted it may be the last to be published while there is still some chance of avoiding the worst impacts from climate change.
This Sixth Report is being released in four parts between August 2021 to October 2022. The first part examined the physical basis of climate science (how the atmosphere is changing – and will change – and whether human influence is responsible). The second part, which was released on 28 February, assesses the effects of climate change, such as extreme weather, droughts, floods and temperature rises, and how best to adapt to these changes[i].
What does the Second Part Say?
The conclusions of the most recent instalment of the Sixth Report make for sobering reading:
- The risks associated with lower levels of warming are greater than the previous 2014 IPCC adaptation assessment had concluded;
- The window to adapt to climate change is "brief and rapidly closing";
- The impacts on human systems, natural systems, and ecosystems are more widespread and accelerating;
- Ecosystems are reaching the limits of their ability to adapt to the changing climate, and the effectiveness of adaptation will decrease with increasing warming;
- Some losses are already irreversible;
- Sea-level rise is already inevitable, posing an existential threat for some small islands and increased vulnerability for infrastructure, including ports and energy systems;
- Up to 1bn people could be at risk from coastal flooding by 2060;
- Half the world's population live in areas that are "highly vulnerable" to climate change;
- Even at 1.5 degrees or less, 8% of current farmland will become unproductive.
Given that the world has already warmed by 1.1 degrees since the pre-industrial period and that there is a lag in the world's climate response to emissions, it is likely that the world will warm by 1.5 degrees within 20 years, even if deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are achieved.COP26多次表示,本十年是决定性的十年:2030年前排放量必须减半,世界才有机会保持在1.5度以下变暖状态。
/p>若不将全球变暖限制在1.5度以下,将触发冰帽和冰川融化的灾难性链反作用增加野火和树死accelerating peatland dry-out and permafrost thaw – all of which would release additional carbon emissions further accelerating global warming.
The Report identifies five areas as priorities for future climate adaptation. One of those areas is the reform of energy systems, where the Report makes a number of recommendations:
- Energy generation diversification.
- Improved demand-side management through better storage, and energy efficiency.
- Climate responsive energy markets, smart-grids, robust transmission systems, and improved supply-deficits response capacity.
So How is the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Relevant?
A Commission Communication ("Joint European Action on Affordable, Secure and Sustainable Energy") was due for release on 2 March!however, the Commission has announced a delay to the publication in order to revise it in light of the Ukraine crisis. A leaked draft of the original Communication set out a number of recommendations that were very closely aligned to the IPCC Report recommendations set out above – though the Communication's conclusions were motivated as much by geopolitical and economic, as climate change factors.
It is likely that Putin's aggression in Ukraine will shift the focus of the redrafted Communication to an accelerated switch to renewables, which would also help deliver against the IPCC Report's demands. In his twitter feed, Commission Vice President Timmermans noted on 28 February: "It's time we tackle our own vulnerabilities.以闪电速度跳入可再生能源我们自己清洁廉价无穷能量越快移动,越快减少对他人依赖度,我们站在一起越强。
Whilst远非唯一文件显示欧盟通向2050NetZero目标,尽管即将修改,看通信初始草稿仍然有启发作用,它清楚地表明欧盟从依赖俄罗斯燃气向可再生能源过渡的方向。
EU40%的能源需求依赖俄罗斯燃气并承认迫切需要减少这种依赖度,甚至在俄国入侵乌克兰前都如此。文稿表示:“欧盟仍然高度依赖能源进口发电加热This is the case in particular as regards gas, where we rely on imports for 90% of our consumption… This dependency has aggravated the current situation of high energy prices."Even before the Ukraine crisis, the draft Communication was crystal clear on the dangers of European "dependence on a single supplier of fossil gas" demanding "diversification of gas supply and using the full potential of green and low carbon energy sources" including increasing the use of LNG to "reduce our dependence on imported Russian gas and strengthen security of supply."
The draft Communication argued that "[s]ustained high energy prices are impacting the entire economy….廉价燃气价格.使可再生清洁能源投资更有利可图,这意味着“快速清洁能源过渡需求从来就没有更强和清晰”,提高燃气价格缩短了“从易变化石燃料向更廉价可再生能源技术过渡的回溯时间.减少对进口依赖并推倒物价”。
通信草案以这一结论为基础,侧重于能源多样化的重要性通信草案反射气专委报告的结论,就如何增加使用太阳能和促进生物量和氢量生产提出若干建议文中称快速提高可再生发电能力“是我们能源向2050年去碳化过渡的关键”,并称它为“终端使用部门电气化和再生氢生产之工具”,并补充多样化是减少该大陆对俄罗斯天然气过度依赖的最有效方式。通信草案建议多项需求方响应,包括提高能效清除监管屏障加速天然气存储投资The motivation may be different – "to make Europe less vulnerable to fluctuations on the fossil fuel markets" – but the sense of urgency is the same "as soon as possible."
Once again, mirroring the IPCC's conclusions, the draft Communication proposed an "ambitious combination of funding and regulatory measures [to] accelerate the green transition." Although it does not feature in the original Communication, it would not be a surprise to see the amended version place an expanded role for nuclear power as a green alternative back on the agenda again – not least given the recent announcement by the German Government that they would consider postponing the decommissioning of German nuclear reactors as part of the national response to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Conclusion
Although perhaps reached for different reasons, the conclusions of the IPCC Report and the Commission are identical: an accelerated shift away from dependence on hydrocarbons for energy and an increased focus on the rapid deployment of renewable energy is essential. For the EU, the shift is necessary not only for climate change reasons, but also for its long-term political, economic and social well-being.
The EU was already heading down the renewables path: the Russian invasion of Ukraine will accelerate that process in the medium- to long-term and will force the EU to seek other sources of natural gas in the short-term. The process of seeking new sources of gas will have an impact on global gas prices, which will in turn further accelerate the global shift to an increasing reliance on renewable energy.
No one should be under any illusion that the energy transition will be rapid, pain-free, or easy, but the EU's experience with dependence on Russian gas demonstrates clearly one of the real geopolitical vulnerabilities of continuing to rely on the existing model.
Covington's mixed teams of regulatory and public policy experts are uniquely placed to advise clients on how to navigate the turbulent geopolitics of international relations and their impact on the energy transition.
We would be happy to discuss with you how these complicated inter-relationships may affect your company and your business.
[i] The report of the third working group, which will examine how to cut emissions, will be released at the end of the second quarter.第四即最后一次工作组报告综合其他三个工作组报告的结论,将于10月在COP27前发布-定于2022年11月举行。
As the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties ("COP") in Glasgow has drawn to a close, with seemingly mixed messages and a somewhat ambiguous conclusion, it is worth reflecting on the overall trajectory of the climate issue, societal expectations, and the accomplishments that — with time — Glasgow is likely to represent. COP26 highlighted the fragility of the planet, as well as the fragility of the global consensus-based United Nations approach to protecting it. It highlighted the sweep of global climate-induced challenges and the scale of transformation needed to address them. With rising temperatures has come a rising global focus on climate and a far greater set of emerging societal expectations for meaningful responses by government and the private sector. Despite the risk that the global agreement forged in Glasgow is seen by climate activists as all talk and no action — what they referred to as "blah, blah, blah" — I believe that a number of features will endure as important accomplishments.
Representatives from 197 nations, businesses, hundreds of civil society organizations, scientists, educators, media, and climate activists — you name it — all converged on Glasgow to shine a global spotlight on the climate crisis. The Conference had some 40,000 registered participants. With just a few thousand of those involved in the negotiations themselves, the rest converged around elevating climate understanding, climate solutions, and climate action. And still tens of thousands of others converged to protest and lend their voices to the climate debate.期望因Covid-19延迟一年以及美国返回巴黎气候进程而提高但这些期望都集中在依赖实现每一项结果一致性的联合国谈判进程上 。
尽管Covid云下集合和大批与会者所构成挑战,但缔约方会议在某些方面组织得比以往更好。它不再完全是一个国际谈判,而更多地是一个通信机制,以凝聚世界对雄心气候行动需求的看法United Nations进程启动全球领导人峰会,有120位国家元首参加It featured inspiring statements from governmental and societal leaders, such as Sir David Attenborough. The Summit then flowed into the overall COP, which had a thematic organization for each day of the conference, by which it highlighted actions or the sweep and scale of climate impacts in a more coherent fashion than ever before — spanning from energy, finance, transport, cities and the built environment, science and innovation, nature, gender, youth, and adaptation to and loss and damage from climate change. And the overall gathering encapsulated a heightened global focus on climate as a defining generational issue in a way that has never happened before.
The World Rallied Around the Urgency Shown By the Evolving Climate Science
The defining element of the Glasgow considerations was the acceptance of a far sharper sense of climate science findings around the scale and urgency of emissions reductions needed to stabilize the earth's climate and prevent catastrophic consequences. Every aspect of the discussions was judged by the context the new climate science shows.
Leading up to the COP, the UN's authoritative science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ("IPCC"), had issued two reports — one in 2018 focused on the imperative of holding global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Centigrade, and one in the Summer of 2021 highlighting the "overwhelming" evidence of climate change. The reports showed that a rise in global temperature to 2 degrees would lead to catastrophic results in both the frequency and severity of climate-induced events and global changes. The reports found the science of human-induced impacts "unequivocal" and noted that global temperatures had already risen by 1.1 degrees over pre-industrial levels — demonstrating how limited the remaining carbon budget is — and that climate adverse effects were widespread, rapid, and intensifying.The report further found that urgent action is needed to cut emissions by 45% by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2050 in order to maintain a sustainable trajectory.
The IPCC findings were characterized by UN Secretary General António Guterres as a "code red for humanity." They became the touchstone for judging the adequacy of country pledges and private sector net zero commitments. In addition to the scale of the emissions reductions, the need for an accelerated pace of change also became far clearer and a widely accepted expectation. The notion that we are now in a "decisive decade" to get on the right emissions trajectory was embraced by the COP process. Going into the COP, various assessments, such as from the International Energy Agency, showed that existing country emissions reduction commitments would lead to a global temperature rise of 2.8 degrees by the end of the century. Those pledges covered less than 20 per cent of the gap in emissions reductions needed to be closed by 2030 to keep a 1.5 degree path within reach. According to a number of projections, the plethora of new commitments announced at the COP would, if delivered in full, lower the rise to somewhere between 1.8 and 1.9 degrees. The UN noted that the actual nationally determined contributions ("NDCs") submitted by participating nations would result in an unsustainable global temperature rise of 2.4 degrees.
At the end of the day, the overall agreement reached by 197 countries — including new emissions reductions announcements, the move to more regular revision of national commitments, transparency requirements around that process, and the development of rules for the global carbon markets — at bottom kept alive the possibility of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century and essentially transformed that temperature target into the new object of the UN process.虽然1.8度和1.5度之间的差值似乎不大,但实际上它代表着减轻气候变化最大破坏性影响的实质性差值。 广泛报道的争议涉及是否逐步停用煤炭和化石燃料补贴,发展中国家是否有足够的气候资金,以及是否向受影响国家提供补偿“损耗和损害”抑制了对协议的热度。 尽管如此,正如缔约方会议主席Alok Sharma得出的结论, “我们现在可以可信地说我们已经保住1.5度。But, its pulse is weak and it will only survive if we keep our promises and translate commitments into rapid action."
Paired with these science targets was a far more prominent voice given to the moral underpinnings to the proceedings that focused on the inequity created because the most vulnerable nations to climate impacts are those who have contributed least to the emissions causing such impacts, and a palpable sense of obligation to future generations. The IPCC report drove home the concept that the COP process is not some future exercise with distant impacts, but that the delegates were poised to address an urgent crisis of the here and now.
The Paris Climate Framework Survived the Absence, and Accommodated the Return, of the United States as an Active Participant
The nations of the world remained committed to the UN Climate Framework Convention's goal of "the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" even in the absence of U.S.巴黎气候协议自下而上承诺框架由每个国家根据自身环境确定,体现了应对这一全球挑战的共同全球承诺,没有美国则保持稳定和适切性participation, and the reaffirmation of that framework may be one of Glasgow's greatest accomplishments.
The Paris balance had achieved a "bottom-up" system of emissions reduction commitments that flexibly accommodates the circumstances of individual countries, yet one that does not allow so much flexibility that there is no realistic hope of actually bettering the climate situation by addressing emissions mitigation, adaptation to the already locked-in effects of climate change, and assistance for climate-impacted developing nations. Paris provided a solution and a directional sense of its goals, even as it admitted that its trajectory may need to grow more stringent over time, informed by meaningful science. Glasgow refined that process with a commitment by the parties to revisit their NDCs in one year rather than five and with enhanced transparency around individual country goals and their implementation. This process preserves the possibility that the collective emissions reduction actions are calibrated to avoid the worst climatic impacts.
The durability of the Paris structure was aided, to be sure, by the promise of new technology, which could allow for countries to enhance their emission reduction commitments through cost effective wind, solar, energy efficiency, and electric vehicle technologies — technologies that were still only on the verge in Paris — making a clean energy transformation that is consistent with the Paris climate goals today seem like an attainable objective.
When the United States did return to the negotiating table, it brought with it an ambitious NDC — pledging to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution by 2030, to achieve 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035, and net zero emissions no later than 2050. It also brought a bevy of other actions to instill more confidence in its commitment.This included leadership in assembling a global methane reduction coalition by which more than 100 countries agreed to cut emissions to tackle this highly potent short-acting greenhouse gas by 2030, a "first movers" technology coalition, as well as a series of whole-of-government financial and regulatory initiatives.
While the Biden Administration would have liked to have had its actions backed up by climate legislation, particularly power plant incentives and a range of clean energy tax credits in the reconciliation bill, it made a strong case nonetheless about the comprehensive approach it is taking to prioritizing climate outcomes across the government, whether that be in the financial sector, energy, or transportation. And the United States demonstrated ambition in its diplomacy, reaching a surprise commitment with China to work collaboratively across a range of areas to keep alive the prospects for achieving 1.5 degrees. President Biden's address to the COP was complemented by a widely praised speech by former President Obama speaking directly to youth climate activists who had taken to the streets during the COP, as well as by Congressional leadership.
The Global Focus on the Climate Crisis Puts a New Spotlight on the Importance of Business Solutions and the Business Opportunities Around Climate — Subject to Ever Greater and More Intensive Scrutiny
The first week of the COP brought a breathtaking series of collaborative public and private sector announcements to achieve carbon emissions reductions. In many ways, these commitments seem almost as significant in accomplishing a clean energy transformation as the text of the UN agreement itself.
In addition to the methane pledge, leaders from over 120 countries, representing about 90 percent of the world's forests, pledged to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030. Hundreds of financial firms, operating through the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), committed over $130 trillion of private capital — representing 40 percent of global financial assets — to transforming the economy for net zero.Various combinations of development organizations and private sector capabilities identified a range of opportunities they will pursue for investments in particular developing nation economies, such as in efforts to stem coal use in South Africa. Nearly 30 national governments, joined by cities, states, major automotive manufacturers, fleet owners, and investors, signed the Glasgow Declaration on Zero-Emission Cars and Vans to end the sale of internal combustion engines by 2035 in leading markets, and by 2040 worldwide. Other transportation commitments touched on heavy duty vehicle electrification, green shipping, and enhancing the deployment of sustainable aviation fuels.
Glasgow in many ways represents a shift in focus from a governmental initiative to a recognition that the scale and pace of the energy and societal transformation and response demanded by climate change necessarily will require swift and credible action by the private sector as well. As one Chief Executive Officer put it, the concept of a "climate-advantaged" company has taken hold, where sustainability has been transformed from a "nice to have" effort being done on the side, to a vital consideration at the center of business strategy, and where such companies can benefit from a substantial value premium. As one of the UN's High Level Climate Champions put it: "Net zero has gone from extreme to mainstream."
Of course, with the proliferation of net zero pledges comes an increasing level of skepticism about the credibility of those commitments and the ability to deliver on them in the long run. In the ramp up to the COP, the IPCC focus on the more stringent and nearer term emissions reductions meant that the Science Based Targets Initiative formally revised its goals for net zero corporate commitments to align with the new 1.5 degree IPCC target and issued a new standard for evaluating company emission reduction offerings. Along these same lines, the so-called "Under 2 Coalition," representing commitments by some 60 percent of world's economy, is recasting itself as the "Net Zero Coalition."
Likewise, the UN Secretary General, at the Opening to the World Leaders Summit portion of the COP and prompted by developing nation and activist concerns over the credibility of emissions reduction commitments, characterized "a deficit of credibility and a surplus of confusion over emissions reductions and net zero targets, with different meanings and different metrics." The Secretary General therefore announced that he will "establish a Group of Experts to propose clear standards to measure and analyze net zero commitments from non-state actors." The Secretary General reiterated his intent to establish a high level group for this purpose at the conclusion of the COP as well. These will likely complement a range of emerging national financial sector and ESG transparency requirements, including the announcement of the formation of a new International Sustainability Standards Board, along with other Paris Climate Agreement provisions, particularly the new carbon market rules.
Indeed, youth activists expressed particular concern over the pace and credibility of emissions reduction commitments, stating quite simply that "we don't believe you" and urging the business community to "prove them wrong." This skepticism was heightened by the overall context of the final COP debate around the failure to honor in a timely way climate finance commitments of $100 billion per year to affected developing countries, the absence of a clear loss and damage compensation commitment, and the somewhat relaxed treatment of fossil fuels, particularly the insistence by some nations to preserve an ongoing role for coal.
Just as there will be these formal processes to help refine net zero expectations, there no doubt also will be enhanced activist group scrutiny of company pledges and climate impacts. Companies will be called to task to demonstrate what they are doing to implement their net zero commitments.This scrutiny is likely to be even more acute given the inability of the formal negotiating process to achieve a level of ambition through country NDCs that will reach the 1.5 degree target or deliver in the short term the climate finance commitments for the developing world and the credibility gap that this outcome may perpetuate. As France's former Climate Ambassador and the key architect of the Paris Climate Agreement, Laurence Tubiana, put it, "Greenwashing is the new climate denial." Climate accountability in many ways will be the new currency.
We Can Expect More Focus on Climate Commitments Going Forward
Building on the Paris accord, the agreement follows the pattern of existing domestic environmental laws in recognizing that it may not be a perfect solution, in and of itself, and that the science will continue to evolve.But those frameworks recognize that it is critical to get started on the emissions reduction process even if the target may be revised in the future. Similar to the Clean Air Act's five year review provision for fundamental health-based pollutants, Glasgow acknowledges the need to calibrate future emissions reductions based on new science more frequently and with greater transparency to assess the success of country measures in meeting the emissions targets, and that there is a fierce urgency of the now being expressed by climate advocates that should inform those evaluations. While the global community has demonstrated that it can, in essence, walk and chew gum at the same time, the question this time is whether it can do so while running.That will be tested starting next year with submissions to the next COP.
Implementation of the various COP26 pledges will be a critical piece of the equation. The test will continue to be how to turn commitments into action for this decade. As the UN Secretary General indicated, "COP27 begins today." In some ways, Glasgow represents a sharper focus on science-aligned plans — by governments and business and in the face of a new global climate consciousness — to maintain climate stability, and the focus will now shift to the implementation and refinement of those commitments. For companies, growing global climate consciousness and risks and opportunities posed by the energy transformation present a new post-Glasgow dynamic necessitating climate engagement, but requiring a credible approach in doing so.
苏格兰政府热切地确保现有(碳氢化合物)部门就业者得到再技能和再生部门提供的机会,可再生能源价格可承受苏格兰水电部门将在支持这一过渡方面发挥重要作用,计划要求苏格兰政府评估如何为碳密集部门工人创建长期“技能保证”。Plan还突显苏格兰成为欧洲低成本氢矿生产者的潜力苏格兰政府将在2022年能源策略和公正过渡计划中更详细地说明其方法。
This money will fund FEED studies for large-scale renewable Hydrogen production projects with a view to making full investment decisions later in the decade.
The Scottish Government wants to use the £100m fund as a means to accelerate as many projects as possible from pilot stage to large scale commercial and has hypothecated £10m to prioritise innovation and research through the creation of the Scottish Hydrogen Innovation Fund, which will be launched early in 2022.
The remaining £80m of the EETF will fund the development of carbon capture, utilization and storage technologies – suggesting that the Scottish Government views blue Hydrogen as an important element of its Hydrogen revolution.
Timeline
The Plan sets out detailed action points until the end of 2026.苏格兰政府期望到2026年大规模氢生产基础设施到位,与大规模碳捕获存储相联(super>CCS )以及岸上和近海风开发。
计划还提出了2045至2045年Hydrugen经济路径图苏格兰的目标是到2035年实现100%可再生电运营,同时增加向英国和欧洲其他地区的氢输出量In the 2040s, the Scottish Government aims to have capacity to produce 25 GW of Hydrogen and to be established as an enduring and reliable exporter of Hydrogen to Europe.
Underlying Themes
- Strategic Scotland – the Plan stresses Scotland's ideal position – due to its location, infrastructure, skilled workforce and natural resources – to grow its Hydrogen industry and become a world-leader in the Hydrogen sector.
- Private Sector Diversification – the Plan notes the opportunity that Hydrogen offers for existing energy companies not only to diversify their offer, but also to reduce their carbon emissions.
- Regional Approach – the Plan reinforces the importance of Scotland's key regional hubs, in particular Orkney and Shetland, for potential growth in the Hydrogen industry.Aberdeen City is already deemed to be a Hydrogen hub in this regard, and the aim is for the initial public investment in these hubs to facilitate more significant private investment.
- Collaboration – the Plan sets out a collaborative approach to developing Scottish Hydrogen for export, particularly with Germany and other Northern European nations.
Relationship Between Hydrogen and Other Renewable Energy Sources
Although the Plan is not explicit on this point, it acknowledges that initial low-carbon Hydrogen infrastructure will pave the way for establishing the transportation and storage infrastructure to support a green Hydrogen economy in Scotland.
The Plan acknowledges that a strong renewables sector is essential to the development of Hydrogen projects.计划指出岸风部门支持小型和大型可再生水力项目的重要性,但承认该部门需要进一步投资。
离岸风部门更先进Successful bidders in the July 2021 leasing round will be announced in early 2022, and August 2021's leasing round had the specific objective of constructing offshore wind farms to decarbonise oil and gas infrastructure operations, support oil and gas-field decommissioning, and use excess generation to create Hydrogen.
Key Goals
The Plan set out six key goals:
- Drive Scotland's Hydrogen production capability to meet an ambition of 5 GW of renewable and low-carbon Hydrogen by 2030 and 25 GW by 2045.
- Address current barriers to the uptake of green and low-carbon Hydrogen, including high production costs.
- Support the growth of Regional Hydrogen Energy Hubs.
- Encourage demand for Hydrogen by supporting Hydrogen use and developing supply chain capability and export potential.
- Secure broad economic benefit from public sector and private sector support for development of regional Hydrogen production and use.
- Encourage the development of a strong Hydrogen sector in Scotland which supports a just transition to net zero.
II. ACTION PLAN
The Plan sets out six key challenges to be overcome during the next five years.
Scaling Up Hydrogen Production in Scotland
To unlock Scotland's potential to meet its ambitious targets for Hydrogen production, barriers such as regulation, planning laws or infrastructure constraints will need to be addressed.The Plan therefore commits the Scottish Government to a review of existing legislation, regulation and standards, to identify and remove potential barriers to the growth of the Hydrogen industry.
In order to improve understanding of the likely role to be played by Hydrogen in the domestic and global markets, the Scottish Government aims to establish the expected cost-trajectory for renewable Hydrogen up to 2045.
The Scottish Government will work with its counterpart in Whitehall to establish a UK Hydrogen Standard, and until this is established, the Scottish Government will only grant funding to Hydrogen projects with capture rates of at least 90%.将不向COsub>2 排放不减量的新Hydgen网站提供资金。
促进国内Hydrogen市场增长、规模经济和技术进步是关键交通产业被视为可能高氢需求行业。
Scottland政府会邀请能源密集制造厂商申请苏格兰工业能源变换基金赠款支持深度去碳化项目新的工业开发无阻碳排放将不符合苏格兰政府供资计划的资格。In the transport sector, the Scottish Government will establish a consortium for implementation of the Plan.
In the heating sector, the Scottish Government will support SGN (formerly known as Scotia Gas Networks), in converting elements of its network to Hydrogen, but only where doing so is consistent with keeping options open and limiting consumer costs.
Finally, the Scottish Government notes the urgency of amendments to existing UK-wide regulations to support the role of Hydrogen in the gas grid, to support Hydrogen blending and to maximize the volumes of renewable Hydrogen available in the energy system as quickly as possible.
Maximising the Benefits of Integrating Hydrogen into the Scottish Energy System
The Plan notes that converting renewable energy into Hydrogen provides new routes to market and may well change the investment proposition for new and existing renewables investors.
The Scottish Government believes that a key way to maximize the benefits of Hydrogen integration is to work with the UK government, Ofgem and the energy network sector to ensure that regulation rewards Hydrogen projects appropriately.关键行动点是建立氢流交通配送基础支持苏格兰氢流输出目标。
计划强调技能投资,包括提高工人技能并重新培训工人进入Hypgen部门。Hypgen工商开发服务将旨在促进产业和学术研究之间的协作。
企业机构将特别支持Scot2Ger项目,目的是到2024年向德国消费者提供苏格兰生产的可再生氢计划指出必须确保苏格兰氢流国际输出不存在法律或监管障碍,苏格兰氢流行业国际内向投资也不存在障碍。
Scottish Development国际外联方案将与280家被确定为苏格兰氢流行业外国直接投资潜在目标的国际公司积极接触将寻求与德国、比利时、荷兰、丹麦、加拿大、澳大利亚、日本和法国的关键协作。
加强创新和研究 一个新的苏格兰氢创新网络将促进苏格兰氢创新资产间增强协作并避免研究重复苏格兰政府支持苏格兰通过清洁氢欧洲合作伙伴关系申请欧盟资助,并启动150k英磅研究电话支持苏格兰和德国学术应用研究所之间的合作The focus is on domestically-generated renewable electricity to create a power system based on a mix of renewables, new nuclear power stations, flexible storage, gas with CCS and hydrogen.
Specifically, the NZS undertakes to:
- Secure FID on a large-scale nuclear plant by the end of this Parliament;
- Launch a new £120 million Future Nuclear Enabling Fund.
- Create 40 GW of offshore wind by 2030.
- Create up to one of floating offshore wind by 2030.
- Deploy new measures to help smooth out future price spikes.
2) Fuel Supply & Hydrogen
The NZS re-states the ambition that the UK will deliver 5 GW of hydrogen production capacity by 2030. The UK will at the same time halve emissions from oil and gas and increase the production of biofuels.
Specifically, the NZS undertakes to:
- Provide up to £140 million to establish the Industrial Decarbonisation and Hydrogen Revenue Support (IDHRS) scheme, with a target of creating up to 250MW of green hydrogen production capacity in 2023.
- Introduce a climate compatibility checkpoint for future licensing on the UK Continental Shelf.
- Regulate the oil and gas sector in a way that minimises greenhouse gases through the revised Oil and Gas Authority Strategy.
3) Industry
The NZS commits the UK to creating four carbon capture usage and storage (CCUS) clusters by 2030. The UK will support a ‘deep decarbonisation of industry' through carbon pricing and the creation of low carbon industry clusters, which would have access to Government support under the CCS Infrastructure Fund and revenue support mechanisms.
Specifically, the NZS undertakes to:
- Accelerate the development of the Hynet and East Coast Clusters to capture 20-30 MtCO2 per year by 2030.
- Create a ‘reserve cluster' of Teesside and the Humber, Merseyside, North Wales and the North East of Scotland.
- Use the Industrial Energy Transformation Fund to future-proof industrial sectors.
- Consult on a net-zero-consistent UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) cap to incentivise cost-effective abatement in industry.
4) Heat and Buildings
The NZS creates a pathway to ensuring that from 2035 all new heating appliances in homes and workplaces are low carbon and sets 2026 as the date for a decision on the role of hydrogen in heating.The Government will seek to reduce electricity costs and to rebalance energy levies (such as RO and FiTs) and obligations (such as ECO) away from electricity to gas.
Specifically, the NZS undertakes to:
- Prevent the sale of new gas boilers beyond 2035.
- A Boiler Upgrade Scheme will incentivize the swap-out of domestic gas boilers.
- Create a new Heat Pump Ready programme to provide funding for heat pump technologies with a target of 600,000 installations a year by 2028.
- Rebalance policy costs from electricity bills to gas bills.
- Fund the Social Housing Decarbonisation Scheme and Home Upgrade Grants and decarbonise public sector buildings by 75% by 2037.
- Launch a Hydrogen Village trial to inform a decision on the role of hydrogen in the heating system by 2026.
- Consider mandatory disclosure requirements for mortgage lenders on the energy performance of homes in their portfolios (UK housing stock generates 20% of carbon dioxide emissions).
5) Transport
The NZS aims to remove all road emissions and begin work to deliver zero emission international travel including through new vehicle grants and investment in electric vehicle infrastructure!and to increase use of public transport, cycling and walking.
Specifically, the NZS undertakes to:
- Introduce a zero emission vehicle mandate to give a clear signal to investors.
- End the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2035.
- Increase funding for zero emission vehicle grants and EV Infrastructure.
- Allocate funding to support the electrification of UK vehicles and their supply chains.
- Trial three zero-emission HGV technologies on UK roads to determine their operational benefits and infrastructure needs.
- Introduce funding to promote cycling and walking in UK towns and cities.
- Fund an increase in bus use.
- Make local transport systems net zero, including through zero-emission buses and trains and supporting infrastructure and remove all diesel-only trains by 2040.
- Extend the Clean Maritime Demonstration Competition.
- Research zero emission flights and commercialise sustainable aviation fuel.
6) Natural Resources, waste and fluorinated gases
The NZS sets out the Government's ambition to increase woodland creation in England to meet the UK's overall target of planting rates to 30,000 hectares per year by the next election.NZS旨在鼓励农民实施低碳耕作法,包括通过农林业The NZS sets out the UK's ambition to encourage a circular economy and continue to phase out the use of F-gases.
Specifically, the NZS undertakes to:
- Support low-carbon farming and agricultural innovation.
- Restore 280,000 hectares of peat in England by 2050 and treble woodland creation rates in England.
- Increase investment in net-zero-related R&D across Natural Resources, Waste & F-gases.
- Explore options for the elimination of biodegradable municipal waste to landfill from 2028.
7) Greenhouse Gas Removals
The NZS sets out the UK's ambition to deploy at least 5 MtCO2/year of engineered GGRs by 2030 through Government support to early commercial deployment of GGRs, with an ambition to move towards a market-based framework for GGRs.
Specifically, the NZS undertakes to:
- Invest in the increased deployment of GGRs.
- Explore regulatory oversight monitor, report and verify GGRs.
8) Support the transition with cross-cutting action
The NZS sets out the UK's intention to use its status as COP26 host nation to encourage other countries to get to net-zero by 2050, and set more ambitious interim emissions reduction targets.NZS鼓励私营部门提供绿色金融并设定政策意图使选择绿色选项对消费者更容易和便宜The NZS aims to support training and skills including through a focus on local solutions and undertakes to embed climate into all Governmental policy and spending decisions.
Specifically, the NZS undertakes to:
- Deliver funding to support net zero innovation projects.
- Use the UK Infrastructure Bank (UKIB) to crowd in private finance and pull through low carbon technologies and sectors to maturity and scale.
- Introduce a new Sustainability Disclosures Regime, including mandatory climate related financial disclosures and a UK green taxonomy.
- Reform the skills system to incentivize employers and learners in delivering net zero.
- Publish an annual progress update against a set of key indicators.
Reaction:
Overall, the Net Zero Strategy has been welcomed as providing a clear response to the scale of the climate change challenge and the transformation to the UK economy that decarbonisation will require over the next 30 years.
In particular, commentators welcomed the prominence given to: the ZEV mandate!资助离岸风供应链和基础设施近海传输网络协调承诺审查CfD拍卖频率重写氢雄心and the nuclear power commitments.
Commentators have welcomed the emphasis on carbon sequestration, both through natural means (peat bogs, trees) and new capture and storage technologies. For others, the requirement for the UK Government to reflect environmental issues in national policy- making, is one of the most important commitments in the document, since it places net-zero at the core of governmental decision-making processes.
On the Other Hand…
No Strategy ever satisfies everyone and some of the critical comments are worth examining briefly.
1) Weaknesses of the Policy Offering
- The NZS simply consolidates in one place the various UK Government strategies published in the last 12 months, rather than contributes significant new funding, or policy.
- There is no mention of the EU in the International Cooperation Section of the NZS and therefore no indication of how to solve the issues around carbon pricing cooperation (including any potential linkage between the UK and the EU ETS).
- The PM's 10 Point Plan of last December had already made the commitment to 5 GW of green hydrogen by 2030, so the absence of clarity on the UK's post-2030 hydrogen plans (including silence on the potential split between green and blue hydrogen) in the NZS was a missed opportunity.
2) Reliance on Unproven Technology
- The NZS's low carbon future society relies heavily on a techno-centric, market-driven vision, based on largely unproven technology.
- Greenhouse gas removal technologies (that are untested at scale) must, between now and 2050, be developed and deployed so as to remove and store more carbon than the UK currently emits from all its homes.
- Green hydrogen is allocated a major role, though the UK currently has very few operating production facilities.
- Nuclear has been given a (welcome) central role in addressing renewables' intermittency problems. But the solution chosen – small modular nuclear reactors – uses largely unproven technology.
3) Financing
- The Committee on Climate Change has previously calculated that £1.4tn of investment is required over 30 years (equivalent to 2.4% of the UK's GDP or £46 billion per year) to make the country carbon neutral.
- The scale of finance committed by the government in decarbonising the UK's housing stock is less than a quarter of the investment required by 2025.
- The NZS aims to mobilise £60bn of private finance by 2030 in addition to £26bn of public funds: equivalent to the sum the UK has invested in the renewable industry over the last decade.
- The NZS target for installing heat pumps is 600,000 per year by 2028.But the grant funding available for heat pumps will cover the installation of only 90,000 pumps.
4) Government Inconsistencies
The Treasury's Net Zero Review (NZR), released on the same day as the NZS, accepted that action to mitigate climate change was "essential to long-term UK prosperity". However, there were points where the NZR did not appear to share the NZS enthusiasm for the green revolution:
- The NZR raised concerns about the possibility of ‘industrial leakage' caused by stricter green policies in the UK as compared to other countries.
- The NZR raised concerns that the race to Net Zero was likely to result in the loss of up to £37bn a year in tax revenues from fossil fuel duty.
- The NZR noted the need for new taxes to pay for the NZS.
- The Treasury is concerned about possible job losses caused by the energy transition.
- Treasury officials are said to be considering some form of road pricing as another mechanism to raise funds.
There are other areas of apparent inconsistency:
- The apparent tension between Government commitments to grant new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea and open a new coal mine in Cumbria and the green agenda set out in the NZS.
- The NZS is silent on meat-eating, which contrasts with the approach taken in the UK's national food strategy.
Comment:
For all this criticism, the NZS is a welcome document. It is one of the first to comprehensively attempt to chart with some degree of precision how a country (the UK in this case) will reach its mid-century Net-Zero target.
If it was not clear before, the NZS reveals the almost unimaginable scale of the transformation that will be necessary to reach Net-Zero by 2050. By 2035, electricity will be fully clean!燃气锅炉和油气耗车将从英国房屋和公路上消失by 2025, the UK will be planting trees covering an area the size of Milton Keynes annually. And Net-Zero considerations will be placed at the centre of Government policy decision-making.
It is also clear that the UK is serious about addressing the climate crisis and that there is cross-Party support for accelerating the UK's Energy Transition. The government views its Presidency of COP26 as an opportunity to act as a global catalyst for progress in confronting the climate crisis and the NZS is a road-map to which the UK Government hopes other countries will look for inspiration.
There will be turbulence as the UK economy adjusts to the transformation. Turbulence which may create investment risks, but will also create major opportunities for investment- wind, nuclear, hydrogen, EV, energy efficiency, smart grids, smart storage etc.
Covington is well-placed to offer legal and public policy advice and support to companies seeking to navigate this new environment and discuss these opportunities with you to identify how we might work together.
2020年12月,英国总理提出了绿色工业革命宏大10点计划,其中关键点之一是到2030年英国生产5千兆瓦低碳氢计划设想氢解碳密集工业和重交通并替换家庭供热中的天然气方面起关键作用。
8月17日,联合王国政府发布氢化战略(连同数项相关咨询),为联合王国未来氢经济打下基础,并阐明联合王国政府将如何支持创新和刺激对低碳氢的投资以达到5GW目标。战略还指出迫切需要公众认识运动消除消费者对安全的关切。
策略划分为五大部分:
- 潜在作用实现净零UK氢经济全系统方法:通向2030年的路径图开发氢值链中每个元素所需动作实现2030目标-碳预算六和净零市场和管理框架英国需要到2030年开发氢市场。
- 提高研究创新速度以加速成本削减和技术部署最大未来氢输出机会. /li>国际协作支持全球向净零过渡.
- 监控和评价:英国将如何监测进度以确保其实现前两章规定的目标.
LCHS可排除超出单位氢二氧化碳水平的项目参保政府支持计划。
本咨询开放10周,2021年10月25日结束回复尚不清楚政府将如何确定公平补贴,以及任何此类计量费用均通过家庭帐单或国库支付。 查询政府当前对合同长度、未来生产量支持规模和与其他收入支持机制兼容性的看法; This consultation is open for 10 weeks and will close for responses on 25 October 2021. Net Zero Hydrogen Fund Consultation The Fund is designed to encourage the of low carbon hydrogen during the 2020s in order to accelerate scale-up to meet the 5 GW target in 230. The Consultation sets out the proposed scope, design and delivery of the Fund, worth up to £240 million. The Consultation focuses on: 本咨询开放10周,2021年10月25日结束响应。
除是英国能源转换的重要组成部分外,联合王国政府视氢为职业创造者工具交付'平整'目标并以此方式鼓励对英国经济的大量投资与战略相伴的部会评论引用英国到2030年9000亿英磅投资和9000个工作值,到2050年可能上升至130亿英磅和10万个工作值,预测英国到2050年20-35%的耗能可以氢为基值。
Industry对发布战略广表欢迎,但呼吁政府提高雄心水平部分行业数字指出,英国2030年5千兆瓦低碳生产目标与欧盟2024年6千兆瓦目标相比不利,而其他人则评论说欧洲已经有23座氢钢厂-英国没有By using the terminology of ‘low carbon' hydrogen, the Strategy avoids explicitly choosing either blue or green hydrogen, opting instead to use a Consultation to establish emissions standards for blue hydrogen projects.
The decision to include both green and blue hydrogen in its Strategy differs from the EU approach whose focus has been more on the production of green hydrogen. Blue hydrogen has also been the subject of some controversy with a recent study by researchers at Cornell University suggesting that blue hydrogen may produce more overall lifecycle emissions than burning natural gas.
The UK's decision to include both blue and green hydrogen in its Strategy may be partly explained by the existence of North Sea gas and depleted oil wells which can be used to create blue hydrogen and store the resulting carbon dioxide. But it is also a tacit acknowledgment that, with domestic production currently so low, both forms of hydrogen will be required to meet its 2030 target.
Another question that has been raised is whether hydrogen is an effective energy source for all the different sectors for which the UK Government has indicated it is intended. Some commentators have argued that hydrogen's short supply means that it should be targeted at hard-to-decarbonise sectors such as cement and steel production, aviation and shipping.
However, the UK Government remains keen to investigate the possible use of hydrogen in domestic heating and has launched a series of trials which will help inform a decision in 2026 on the role of hydrogen in decarbonising heat.政府还计划评估以20:80混合方式将氢注入现有天然气供应的安全性和技术可行性,并估计可实现7%排减量热楼策略预期会提供更多细节。
UK Hypen策略和咨询为氢行业公司创造机会和风险Covington的政策和法律团队将乐于帮助公司在引导这些新创举方面征求建议。
In the AJP, the Administration explains that one of its goals is to "[e]stablish the United States as a leader in climate science, innovation, and R&D." As part of this effort, the Administration has vowed to invest in demonstration floating offshore wind projects. This is not the only recent federal action that has signaled Washington's newfound support for offshore wind. In December, Congress extended investment and project tax credits for offshore wind projects. The next month, the Administration summarized a collection of federal actions underscoring its commitment to create 30 gigawatts ("GW") of electricity via offshore wind by 2030.
Government actions already have delivered impressive early progress towards this goal.EPA最近https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-app-air-perti-dection-Educe-winde-wind-a hrefss/www.boem.gov/boem-annocations-Enview-report-ween-force-facility-offshore-Rhode-Island-and-Massachusts'项目Rhode-Island-and-MassachusettsIn 2019, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management ("BOEM") released a statement explaining that it had "15 active commercial leases for offshore wind development that could support more than 21 gigawatts of generating capacity."
While states up and down the Atlantic Coast has seen a flurry of recent activity, states along the Pacific coast promise to play an important role in achieving the Administration's goals. California in particular appears well positioned to become a leader in offshore wind. A recent study estimates that California has over 200 GW of potential offshore wind capacity, 8.4 GW of which exist in current BOEM "call areas" off of California's central and northern coast.For reference, the California Energy Commission estimated that in 2018 California had approximately 80 GW of electric generation capacity installed across the state. These numbers make it clear that offshore wind in California could go a long way towards meeting the Biden Administration's generation target.
Offshore wind is now poised to play an important role meeting state emission reduction targets, including California's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. After all, it is a natural complement to California's robust solar generation: it picks up in the evening when the sun goes down, and remains a strong resource overnight. Offshore wind therefore provides a pathway to round-the-clock electricity from renewable resources.
Despite the fact that offshore wind has not yet been utilized in California, a recent joint energy agency study concluded that California will need to harness at least 10 GW of offshore wind to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Some do not want to wait that long, and are considering aggressive intermediate targets for offshore wind generation. A previous version of California Assembly Bill 525, proposed formal offshore wind goals for the state, including 3 GW by 2030 and 10 GW by 2040.
Just this week, California and the federal government signaled how serious they are about harnessing this renewable resource to achieve their respective goals. On Tuesday, Governor Newsom and the Biden Administration announced plans to sell offshore wind leases in two of the three existing BOEM call areas: large parcels in Morro Bay and off the coast of Humboldt County. It is estimated that placing turbines on floating platforms 20 to 30 miles off the coast in these areas could generate a total of 4.6 GW of electricity—enough to power 1.6 million homes. Officials are optimistic that the lease sale will occur in 2022.
Despite the state and federal optimism, there are some obstacles that will need to be addressed. In addition to concerns from environmentalists and the fishing industry, some of these concerns include:
- Design Challenges The areas that have the greatest potential for offshore wind in California are much deeper than their Atlantic counterparts. As such, the turbines cannot be mounted on the seafloor, but instead will need to be on floating platforms. This technology is currently expensive, but the rapid technological advances in Europe's offshore wind industry could be a reason for optimism.
- Ocean Use Conflicts Historically, the U.S.Navy has voiced its concerns about offshore windfarms in California causing issues with the Navy's readiness drills along the coast. The Navy has recently changed course, however, and has explained that it is willing to coordinate regarding the siting of a windfarm in Morro Bay, California.
- Transmission Capacity Because offshore windfarms will be located in federal waters several miles off the coast, transmitting the generated electricity will require the construction of new transmission capacity, including seafloor transmission lines that span multiple miles. These lines will then need to connect to the existing onshore grid. Helpfully, two BOEM call areas in California—Morro Bay and Diablo Canyon—have existing transmission infrastructure that could provide potential grid connection points for electricity generated via offshore wind: a nuclear plant slated for retirement in Diablo Canyon, and a retired power plant in Morro Bay.
- Installation Bottleneck As some have pointed out, a century-old law, the Jones Act, poses logistical issues for the installation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines. The Jones Act limits the transportation of merchandise by water between U.S.ports to vessels that are: built in the United States, registered in the United States, and owned by a United States citizen. But the installation of turbines requires specialized ships that the United States does not have— For its part, the Administration sees this as an opportunity as much as an obstacle. It has noted that the construction of a new fleet will be a key source of union jobs. The Administration recently emphasized that offshore wind has already generated jobs in onshore supply chains, including in the steel industry and shipyards as the United States constructs its "first Jones Act compliant wind turbine installation vessel." One report describes construction of that vessel, the Charybdis, as generating 800 jobs in a Brownsville, Texas shipyard that has previously produced offshore oil rigs.
Time will tell whether 30 GW within ten years is achievable given the current obstacles. But the recent pivot of major oil producers to offshore wind bodes well.石油大公司有数十年经验,使复杂近海项目结业并接入大规模建设近海风能所需的资本和供应链行政当局支持近海风能开发的承诺因此可能为它提供独特的契机与化石燃料行业的从业者合作实现雄心勃勃的创造就业和减排目标。