像世界多政府一样,英国政治目前似乎有些不稳定英国问题反映世界, 常有观点和信念突然不再是数十年来似乎不可推卸的确定性 。

davas两年来首次相遇本周,自由化经济、日益全球化和扩展民主在帮助数以百万计人民脱贫并向他们提供电、净水、食品和经济机会方面非常成功。

Covid暴露了全球化世界的脆弱性-依赖原产中国供应链中联零响应非意外结果包括国家与世界经济其余部分隔绝、经济停顿并加重已经压力的供应链压力公司和国家正期望通过岸上或近岸生产计划缩短供应链,作为向未来可能中断打保的一种方式。对一些国家(特别是靠近欧洲的北非国家)来说,这一发展为人们提供了一个机会。对其他人来说,这意味着撤回投资和就业并失去开发契机

This succession of crises has been attritional for global, national and individual resilience.  Coffers were emptied to mitigate the worst impacts of lockdowns.  Economies were shuttered.  Companies furloughed.  The economic rebound had already led to stretched supply chains and inconsistent cross-sector international supply of goods meant inflation was already on the way up – even before Russia invaded Ukraine…

And whilst world attention was focused on responding to the perma-crisis, inexorably global weather was deteriorating, caused by climate change and the slower than required energy transition, presenting an even greater threat to the established economic order and to developing countries' social, economic and political progress.IPCC警告说,如果有可能将全球变暖限制为2摄氏度,那就2020年代是应对气候变化的关键十年,更不用说1.5摄氏度了。

Whilst India和Pkistan在50摄氏度以上持续温度下烧烤,法国最近记录了其连续40天平均温度以上全法平均温度比标准高3摄氏度土壤饱和度0比1度测量水量年中这个时间法国平均土壤饱和度应为0.85:0.55这个问题,因为法国作为第六大小麦生产国,可在解决全球小麦短缺问题方面发挥重要的回旋生产作用。温度和缺雨意味着法国小麦收成已经下降10%:如果干旱再持续两星期,一些人预测将上升40%。

这些危机关联到可称为Estruce-Nexus俄罗斯入侵乌克兰暴露后共产主义世界秩序的脆弱性。 战争加深了Covid的影响并挑战自由市场资本主义促进全球发展和鼓励民主机构并通过贸易防止冲突的正统性。数国不愿谴责俄国入侵乌克兰(尤其是非洲)这一事实表明,它们可能充其量只是不愿意转而接受西方世界观华盛顿共识也许实际上只真正为那些政治和经济体系和相对财富相匹配的国家服务 。

这个结论也许还显示俄国乌克兰战争并非孤立异常化,而是持续更广泛地调整世界强国和政治控制体系并减少全球化的一部分甚至在Covid前,世界民粹主义政府都呈上升趋势 — — 将2008年金融危机和全球化持久经济创伤归结为失去经济机会和提供保护主义和孤立主义解决方案。

And that is before we get onto the dangers of a global recession caused by the over-correction of central banks to inflationary pressures (six out of eight of the times the Fed has raised interest rates in response to inflation have resulted in a global recession…)

In all, conversations in Davos felt downbeat.  Talk of recession merged with fears of a depression.  The challenge to accepted norms flagging the fragility of the democratic, liberalized, globalized model of economic development with which we are familiar.

Against that backdrop, companies will need to plan carefully.  Investments need to be calibrated against the risk of an economic slowdown/downturn and new market entry will have to be tested against emerging instability and uncertainty.  Covington's mixed teams of public policy experts and legal and regulatory lawyers is ideally placed to help companies assess these risks and navigate an increasingly complicated and (possibly) disparate world.

As the world struggles to adjust to the harsh new reality of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the most recent instalment of the Sixth IPCC Report slipped out almost unnoticed.  And that is worrying, since the assessment in this section of the Report is even starker than previous assessments – noting in particular that in order to avoid global temperatures increasing by greater than 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels, the world needs to halve its emissions this decade: a reduction that the world does not currently appear to be remotely on course to do.

However, whilst the IPCC Report and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are not linked, Russian aggression in Ukraine may serve as a catalyst to speed up the European energy transition and accelerate its retreat from dependency on Russian gas and exposure to volatile international oil markets, which could in turn deliver a more rapid reduction in European emissions.  In the process, perhaps setting the world on a path to achieving an outcome that currently seems unattainable.

What is the IPCC Report?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a panel of the world's leading climate scientists.  The Panel publishes regular updates of global knowledge on the climate crisis.更新设计帮助政府决策。更新内容非常全面,每次需要5至7年完成The current Report is the Panel's Sixth Report since its establishment in 1988, and commentators have noted it may be the last to be published while there is still some chance of avoiding the worst impacts from climate change.

This Sixth Report is being released in four parts between August 2021 to October 2022.  The first part examined the physical basis of climate science (how the atmosphere is changing – and will change – and whether human influence is responsible).  The second part, which was released on 28 February, assesses the effects of climate change, such as extreme weather, droughts, floods and temperature rises, and how best to adapt to these changes[i].

What does the Second Part Say?

The conclusions of the most recent instalment of the Sixth Report make for sobering reading:

• The risks associated with lower levels of warming are greater than the previous 2014 IPCC adaptation assessment had concluded;
• The window to adapt to climate change is "brief and rapidly closing";
• The impacts on human systems, natural systems, and ecosystems are more widespread and accelerating;
• Ecosystems are reaching the limits of their ability to adapt to the changing climate, and the effectiveness of adaptation will decrease with increasing warming;
• Some losses are already irreversible;
• Sea-level rise is already inevitable, posing an existential threat for some small islands and increased vulnerability for infrastructure, including ports and energy systems;
• Up to 1bn people could be at risk from coastal flooding by 2060;
• Half the world's population live in areas that are "highly vulnerable" to climate change;
• Even at 1.5 degrees or less, 8% of current farmland will become unproductive.

Given that the world has already warmed by 1.1 degrees since the pre-industrial period and that there is a lag in the world's climate response to emissions, it is likely that the world will warm by 1.5 degrees within 20 years, even if deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are achieved.COP26多次表示,本十年是决定性的十年:2030年前排放量必须减半,世界才有机会保持在1.5度以下变暖状态。

/p>若不将全球变暖限制在1.5度以下,将触发冰帽和冰川融化的灾难性链反作用增加野火和树死accelerating peatland dry-out and permafrost thaw – all of which would release additional carbon emissions further accelerating global warming.

The Report identifies five areas as priorities for future climate adaptation.  One of those areas is the reform of energy systems, where the Report makes a number of recommendations:

• Energy generation diversification.
• Improved demand-side management through better storage, and energy efficiency.
• Climate responsive energy markets, smart-grids, robust transmission systems, and improved supply-deficits response capacity.

So How is the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Relevant?

A Commission Communication ("Joint European Action on Affordable, Secure and Sustainable Energy") was due for release on 2 March!however, the Commission has announced a delay to the publication in order to revise it in light of the Ukraine crisis.  A leaked draft of the original Communication set out a number of recommendations that were very closely aligned to the IPCC Report recommendations set out above – though the Communication's conclusions were motivated as much by geopolitical and economic, as climate change factors.

It is likely that Putin's aggression in Ukraine will shift the focus of the redrafted Communication to an accelerated switch to renewables, which would also help deliver against the IPCC Report's demands.  In his twitter feed, Commission Vice President Timmermans noted on 28 February: "It's time we tackle our own vulnerabilities.以闪电速度跳入可再生能源我们自己清洁廉价无穷能量越快移动,越快减少对他人依赖度,我们站在一起越强。

Whilst远非唯一文件显示欧盟通向2050NetZero目标,尽管即将修改,看通信初始草稿仍然有启发作用,它清楚地表明欧盟从依赖俄罗斯燃气向可再生能源过渡的方向。

Even before the Ukraine crisis, the draft Communication was crystal clear on the dangers of European "dependence on a single supplier of fossil gas" demanding "diversification of gas supply and using the full potential of green and low carbon energy sources" including increasing the use of LNG to "reduce our dependence on imported Russian gas and strengthen security of supply."

The draft Communication argued that "[s]ustained high energy prices are impacting the entire economy….廉价燃气价格.使可再生清洁能源投资更有利可图,这意味着“快速清洁能源过渡需求从来就没有更强和清晰”,提高燃气价格缩短了“从易变化石燃料向更廉价可再生能源技术过渡的回溯时间.减少对进口依赖并推倒物价”。

通信草案建议多项需求方响应,包括提高能效清除监管屏障加速天然气存储投资The motivation may be different – "to make Europe less vulnerable to fluctuations on the fossil fuel markets" – but the sense of urgency is the same "as soon as possible."

Once again, mirroring the IPCC's conclusions, the draft Communication proposed an "ambitious combination of funding and regulatory measures [to] accelerate the green transition."  Although it does not feature in the original Communication, it would not be a surprise to see the amended version place an expanded role for nuclear power as a green alternative back on the agenda again – not least given the recent announcement by the German Government that they would consider postponing the decommissioning of German nuclear reactors as part of the national response to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Conclusion

Although perhaps reached for different reasons, the conclusions of the IPCC Report and the Commission are identical: an accelerated shift away from dependence on hydrocarbons for energy and an increased focus on the rapid deployment of renewable energy is essential.  For the EU, the shift is necessary not only for climate change reasons, but also for its long-term political, economic and social well-being.

The EU was already heading down the renewables path: the Russian invasion of Ukraine will accelerate that process in the medium- to long-term and will force the EU to seek other sources of natural gas in the short-term.  The process of seeking new sources of gas will have an impact on global gas prices, which will in turn further accelerate the global shift to an increasing reliance on renewable energy.

No one should be under any illusion that the energy transition will be rapid, pain-free, or easy, but the EU's experience with dependence on Russian gas demonstrates clearly one of the real geopolitical vulnerabilities of continuing to rely on the existing model.

Covington's mixed teams of regulatory and public policy experts are uniquely placed to advise clients on how to navigate the turbulent geopolitics of international relations and their impact on the energy transition.

We would be happy to discuss with you how these complicated inter-relationships may affect your company and your business.

[i] The report of the third working group, which will examine how to cut emissions, will be released at the end of the second quarter.第四即最后一次工作组报告综合其他三个工作组报告的结论,将于10月在COP27前发布-定于2022年11月举行。